Zenith Energy, founded in 2007, and listed in Canada in the year 2008 on the Toronto Stock Venture (TSX Venture Exhange), has a history of acquisitions within the energy production sector. The Company’s core business is within three distinct segments: gas-to-electricity and solar in Italy, and oil operations in the U.S. The Company is currently involved in two separate arbitrations against the Tunisian Government. The first concerns contractual disputes and is brought under the International Chamber of Commerce (“ICC”) in Paris. The second arbitration is brought under the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (“ICSID”) in Washington and addresses broader claims of treaty violations.
Pressmeddelanden
Legal Setback in ICC-2, While Strong Core Business and ICSID Arbitration Carry Upside
Zenith Energy (“Zenith” or “the Company”) has a long history of well-timed acquisitions at attractive valuations, demonstrated by the acquisition of oil assets in Tunisia during the COVID-19 period. The core business remains resilient through energy production in Italy, where the Company has been present since 2010 with a profitable gas and electricity production and where it has accelerated its acquisition strategy and recently completed its largest solar energy transaction to date, resulting in a diversified solar asset portfolio of 58.5 MWp. Italy’s favorable energy price environment, driven by high dependency on imports, provides a structural benefit to the Company. Despite the legal setback in ICC-2, the ongoing and broader claim in the ICSID arbitration remains fully intact, with Zenith pursuing USD 503m under the UK–Tunisia investment treaty. Statistical analysis of previous arbitration outcomes indicates a strong likelihood of success. With an estimated cash injection of USD 110.5 million, based on a probability-weighted approach, and core operations valued at USD 47m applying a discounted cash flow (DCF) methodology, this supports a potential present value of NOK 3.2 per share in a Base scenario.
- Dismissal of Zenith’s ICC-2 Claim
During July 2025, the Arbitral Tribunal issued a decision rejecting the entirety of the claims presented by CNAOG. The dismissal of Zenith’s ICC-2 claim has contributed to increased financial constraints in the near to mid term and has underscored the complexity and unpredictability of international arbitration processes involving sovereign counterparties. Analyst Group has fully excluded the value of ICC-2 from the valuation following the rejection, but continues to monitor the process related to the Company’s intention to submit an annulment application before the Swiss Federal Supreme Court, where the Company has referenced documented procedural irregularities during the arbitration process.
- The Largest Claim ICSID Remains Fully Intact
Zenith’s ICSID arbitration, in which the Company is pursuing USD 503 million under the UK–Tunisia investment treaty, remains fully intact despite the setback in ICC-2. The ICSID claim is by far the largest and most significant of the three proceedings, where the Company now is intensifying both legal and strategic focus on the ICSID process. Final submissions are due in September 2025, with hearings scheduled for the second quarter of 2026.
- Strong Core Business and Attractive Risk–Reward Profile
Zenith has maintained a high pace of acquisitions during year 2025 and has already built a diversified portfolio of 58.5 MWp in solar assets, which together significantly strengthen the core business operations, supporting our expectation that the total portfolio exceeds 100 MWp before the end of year 2025. Following the dismissal of ICC-2, which represented both a legal and financial setback, financial projections have been revised, while focus has shifted to the fully intact ICSID arbitration, where a strong legal position supported by data and precedent underpins an attractive risk–reward profile ahead of final hearings and an expected year 2026 decision.
9
Värdedrivare
4
Historisk lönsamhet
8
Ledning & Styrelse
9
Riskprofil
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Foundation for Favorable Outcomes in Arbitrations and Expansion
Zenith Energy (“Zenith” or “the Company”) has a long history of well-timed acquisitions at attractive valuations, demonstrated by acquisitions of oil assets in Tunisia during COVID-19. The Company relies on two key pillars: electricity production in Italy, a country with favorable high energy prices due to its high dependence on imports, benefiting Zenith as a domestic producer with scale-up potential. Secondly, ongoing claims in two separate arbitrations at ICC and ICSID, related to the Company’s Tunisian operations during 2021–2022, where statistical analysis of past arbitration outcomes supports a strong probability of success. With an estimated cash injection of USD 143.7m in year 2026, based on a probability-weighted approach, and core operations valued at USD 12.3m applying a DCF methodology, this justifies a potential present value of NOK 3.4 per share in a Base scenario.
- High Probability of Favorable Ruling in ICC and ICSID
Analyst Group estimates a 71% probability of a favorable outcome for Zenith in the ongoing ICC and ICSID arbitrations, whether through direct victory or settlement. This assessment is supported by the strength of Zenith’s case, with an already secured favorable arbitration court ruling under the International Chamber of Commerce (“ICC”) 1 in 2024, which presents clear evidence of obstructive treatment, and statistical data on arbitration outcomes in Africa for arbitration court cases. Based on these factors, Analyst Group anticipates that Zenith could recover up to USD 143.7m by 2026 after tax, potentially enabling the Company to distribute an extraordinary dividend to its shareholders and expand its core operations.
- Exposure to Italian Electricity Market
Zenith capitalizes on Italy’s elevated domestic electricity prices through two cash-generative segments, gas-to-electricity and solar, expected to deliver an estimated free cash flow (FCF) of USD 2.3m in 2028. Italy’s reliance on natural gas for ~44% of electricity generation, coupled with a surge in its domestic consumption-to-domestic production ratio from 9x to 21x between 2013 and 2023, has amplified local electricity prices. The situation was further intensified after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which forced Italy to shift to longer, costlier import routes, such as via Qatar, benefiting domestic producers like Zenith.
- Leadership With Proven Track Record
Zenith’s leadership has consistently demonstrated exceptional timing in acquisitions, securing Tunisian assets during the COVID-19 period when oil prices were low, with acquisitions made at a fraction of its subsequent valuation by third-party experts. Similarly, the Company acquired gas assets in Italy ahead of the energy crisis, which later drove up electricity prices. This strong track record is expected to fuel future growth by expanding existing profitable gas- and solar operations in Italy and exploring new high-return opportunities, supported by anticipated funds from the arbitration outcome.
9
Värdedrivare
4
Historisk lönsamhet
9
Ledning & Styrelse
8
Riskprofil
Samtliga analyser av bolag från och med år 2020 betygssätts utifrån ett nytt betygssystem - Värdedrivare, Historisk Lönsamhet och Ledning & Styrelse sträcker sig från 1 till 10, där 10 är högsta betyg. Riskprofil sträcker sig från 1 till 10, där 10 är att anse som högst risk. Aktieanalyser av bolag publicerade innan 2020 har betygssatts utifrån en annan modell.
Analytikerkommentarer
Comment on Zenith’s Results in ICC-2 against ETAP
2025-07-17
Zenith Energy Ltd. (“Zenith” or the “Company”) announced on Wednesday, July 16th 2025, the decision of the Arbitral Tribunal regarding the claims submitted by Zenith’s fully owned Canadian subsidiary, Canadian North African Oil & Gas (“CNAOG”), in relation to the Sidi El Kilani concession (“SLK Concession”), against the Tunisian national oil company, Entreprise Tunisienne d’Activités Pétrolières (“ETAP”), under the International Chamber of Commerce in Paris (“ICC-2 Arbitration”).
The Arbitral Tribunal has issued a decision rejecting the entirety of the claims presented by CNAOG. Zenith states that its legal counsel identified and documented several serious procedural irregularities during ICC-2 why the Company now will proceed with an application for annulment of the ICC-2 award before the Swiss Federal Supreme Court in Lausanne, Switzerland. The Swiss Federal Supreme Court typically renders decisions on annulment applications within 6 to 9 months from submission.
Analyst Group’s View on the Result of the ICC-2 Arbitration
The ruling in ICC-2 represents a significant legal and financial disappointment for Zenith. The complete dismissal of the USD 130 million claim, despite the Company’s stated confidence in the merits of its case, highlights the complexity and unpredictability of international arbitration processes involving sovereign counterparties. The ruling eliminates any short-term monetary recovery from ICC-2.
Previously, Analyst Group had modeled an expected haircut-adjusted award of USD 66.9 million based on legal precedent and comparative outcomes. The decision therefore represents a result beneath even low-probability downside assumptions. However, similar full dismissals have occurred historically, especially in cases where procedural dynamics or tribunal composition have played a material role.
The Company has asserted that serious procedural irregularities has been identified and formally recorded during ICC-2, which will now form the basis for its annulment application. These were documented and will now serve as the legal foundation for the Company’s annulment application to the Swiss Federal Supreme Court. The swift and public announcement of this legal course of action underscores a proactive litigation strategy, aimed not only at contesting the outcome but also at challenging the fundamental legitimacy of the arbitral process itself, an assertion that, if substantiated, could carry significant legal weight. Should the annulment be granted, it could pave the way for the case to be re-heard before a newly constituted and impartial tribunal, which may restore part, or all, of the lost claim value. As such, the ICC-2 result, while negative in its current form, may not represent a final resolution to the dispute.
Despite this legal disappointment, Zenith’s underlying operations remain operationally resilient. High electricity prices in Italy continue to support strong revenue generation from the Company’s Italian power assets. Looking ahead, Zenith is expected to intensify legal and strategic focus on the ICSID proceedings, where Zenith currently is preparing its final written submission, scheduled for delivery in September 2025, ahead of the final hearing set for Q2 2026. A hearing is anticipated during the first or second quarter of 2026. With claims amounting to USD 503 million under the UK–Tunisia Bilateral Investment Treaty, a favorable decision under ICSID will be critical to restoring long-term shareholder value and reinforcing Zenith’s broader claims of unlawful and discriminatory treatment by Tunisian authorities.
Summary
The Arbitral Tribunal has rejected all claims in the ICC-2 arbitration related to the Sidi El Kilani concession, representing a significant legal and financial setback for the Company. In response, Zenith intends to file an annulment application before the Swiss Federal Supreme Court, citing documented procedural irregularities during the arbitration process. If granted, this decision could permit a retrial before a new tribunal. Despite the adverse outcome, the ICSID arbitration, where Zenith is pursuing USD 503 million under the UK–Tunisia investment treaty, remains fully intact and now Zenith is expected to intensify legal and strategic focus on the ICSID proceedings. Final submissions are due in September 2025, with hearings scheduled for the second quarter of 2026. Zenith’s operational performance remains stable, supported by strong cash flows from its Italian power assets, which continue to sustain the Company’s legal strategy as it seeks material recovery through ICSID.
Andrea Cattaneo, Chief Executive of Zenith, commented:
“We are outraged by the decision rendered by the Arbitral Tribunal in ICC-2.
Our position has always been – and remains – that CNAOG is entitled to substantial compensation with respect to the SLK concession. The failure to recognize the illegitimate conduct of the Tunisian authorities, following the favourable precedent set in ICC-1, is nothing short of a travesty.
Acting on the advice of Professor Thomas Clay, a globally recognized authority in international arbitration, CNAOG had already expressed serious concerns regarding the management of ICC-2. We identified and promptly documented serious and repeated procedural irregularities during ICC-2. However, due to the confidentiality provisions governing ICC-2, we were unable to disclose these irregularities publicly until now.
The Company is now considering all legal avenues. CNAOG will, without delay, file an application for annulment of the ICC-2 award before the Swiss Federal Supreme Court. Should the annulment succeed, a new arbitration will be initiated under a properly constituted and impartial tribunal.
CNAOG remains fully confident in the strength of its case and will continue to fight vigorously to achieve justice. Our immediate focus now shifts to the ICSID arbitration, where we are pursuing a US$503 million claim. The final submission is scheduled for September 2025, ahead of the final hearing in Q2 2026. At the same time, we are taking all necessary measures to enforce the ICC-1 award of approximately US$10 million.
This injustice only serves to strengthen our resolve. The Company will not hesitate to explore every legal and procedural mechanism available to ensure accountability and to vindicate its rights.”
Background to the arbitration proceedings
Zenith’s entry into Tunisia, executed in year 2020 and year 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic, coincided with a low point in the oil price cycle. This timing initially appeared advantageous, as many competitors either went bankrupt or scaled down operations. However, following the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February year 2022, the price of oil reversed and reached levels above USD 110, highlighting the well-timed execution. The investments in Tunisia have since been characterized by a series of arbitrary and obstructive actions by the Tunisian Government and the national oil enterprise, Enterprise Tunisienne d’Activités Pétrolières (“ETAP”), ultimately resulting in the initiation of multiple international legal disputes.
To date, three separate arbitration proceedings have been launched. Two arbitrations relate to contractual disputes arising from commercial obligations under relevant agreements and are conducted under the International Chamber of Commerce (“ICC”), referred to as “ICC-1” and “ICC-2.” The third arbitration is conducted under the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (“ICSID”) and addresses broader claims of treaty violations by the Tunisian state against the Company under applicable bilateral investment treaties. This includes the Bilateral Investment Treaty (“BIT”) between the United Kingdom and Tunisia, under which all relevant subsidiaries of Zenith were originally incorporated, having British jurisdiction. The first arbitration, ICC-1, resulted in a favorable award of USD 9.7 million. The ICC-2 arbitration involved a total claim value of USD 130 million and pertains to a contractual dispute regarding the purchase of all shares in the company CNPCIT, which holds a 22.5 % interest in the Sidi El Kilani (SLK) oil concession. The arbitration under ICSID involves claims from Zenith Group totaling USD 503 million and stems from violations of the BIT between the United Kingdom and Tunisia. The dispute concerns all of the Company’s British subsidiaries and operations in Tunisia. The combined total value of claims in the two ongoing proceedings amounts to approximately USD 633 million.
ICC-2 Arbitration: Broader Claims Arising From Contractual Breaches in the SLK Concession
Under the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), a second arbitration proceeding was initiated to assess Zenith’s second claim within this framework, designated as ICC-2, with a total claim value of USD 130 million. The arbitration was initiated by Canadian North African Oil & Gas (“CNAOG”), announced in December year 2023 by Zenith. CNAOG, then a wholly owned subsidiary of Zenith Energy, represents the renamed entity of CNPC Tunisia and holds a 22.5 % stake in the Sidi El Kilani (SLK) oil concession.
This arbitration outlines CNAOG’s broader allegation that Tunisian authorities engaged in arbitrary and obstructive conduct, thereby preventing lawful operation and the realization of value from SLK.
The claim includes:
- Loss of production revenues and profits: CNAOG seeks compensation for foregone revenue from the SLK field between the acquisition date and concession expiry in December 2022, during a period of elevated oil prices.
- Crude allocations denied: Oil volumes owned by CNPCIT (now renamed CNAOG post-acquisition), were allegedly sequestrated, and hence never delivered or monetized.
- Unpaid oil invoices (SLK-specific): As per the crude oil in the port tanks, invoices for oil sold domestically (called DMO) were never paid.
- Loss of right to renew SLK: CNAOG also asserts that it was unlawfully denied the right to renew the SLK concession after 2022. This claim includes the projected future value of a 45% interest (combining the CNPC and KUFPEC stakes) in a renewed SLK license.
2025-09-17

CEO Andrea Cattaneo
"Within the next 12 months, I expect to have strengthened our core business further, with a solar portfolio exceeding 100 MWp and meaningful progress achieved across all arbitration proceedings."
For those who have not previously heard of Zenith Energy, could you briefly introduce the Company, explain what you do, and which markets you address?
Zenith Energy is a diversified energy producer with a strong base in Italy and an international presence. Our business model is focused on acquiring cash-generating assets and expanding our solar portfolio. We deliver value by combining stable revenues from natural gas with scalable growth in renewable energy. In addition, we are pursuing legal claims which we consider a significant potential bonus for our shareholders.
Zenith’s strategy has centred on acquiring cash-generating energy assets, including a low-capex gas concession and a total of 64.5 MWp solar power asset in Italy. Could you elaborate on the Company’s core operations and the key drivers behind its long-term value creation strategy?
Our operations are built on two pillars: profitable gas-to-power production and a rapidly expanding solar business. Gas provides predictable cash flow with low capex, while our solar portfolio, has already surpassed our initial 20 MWp target and is on track to exceed 100 MWp. This combination gives us both short-term stability and long-term growth potential.
Zenith Energy recently announced on September 16 the acquisition of a new 6 MWp solar project in Puglia, Italy, further expanding its renewable portfolio. Could you elaborate on the acquisition?
The new Puglia acquisition increases our capacity in the region to 9 MWp and further strengthens our presence in Italy’s most attractive solar markets. Our acquisition process is very selective – many opportunities are discarded because they do not meet our strict parameters. We focus only on projects with clear permitting visibility, strategic proximity to our existing clusters, and positive preliminary assessments from the utilities, for a potential optional sale of the asset. This disciplined approach ensures that every addition to our portfolio contributes to scale, efficiency and long-term value for our shareholders, keeping always an eye on our liquidity.
Zenith is currently involved in legal arbitrations that may have a material impact on shareholder value. Could you walk us through the background of these cases, and explain where the Company’s legal and strategic focus will be directed going forward?
We currently have four active cases. ICC-1 awarded us USD 9.7 million, which we are working to enforce and collect. ICC-2 was dismissed, but we have filed an annulment request in Switzerland, where we see strong grounds for success. The most significant is the ICSID arbitration, where we are claiming USD 503 million against Tunisia. Each case has a clear legal basis and timeline, and we are confident in our strategy.
Zenith is pursuing a USD 503 million claim under the UK–Tunisia bilateral investment treaty through ICSID. How does this case differ from the ICC arbitrations in terms of legal scope and framework, what is the expected timeline, and what underpins the Company’s confidence in the outcome?
The ICSID arbitration is based on breaches of the bilateral investment treaty between the United Kingdom and Tunisia. This framework provides strong legal protection for foreign investors, and our USD 503 million claim remains fully intact. Final submissions will be made in September 2025, with hearings scheduled for Q2 2026.
Through the Swedish listing, the Company is raising SEK 25 million, despite already having sufficient working capital to support its ongoing operations. What is the rationale for raising this additional capital, and how does the Company intend to allocate the net proceeds?
Our operations and arbitrations are already fully funded. The Swedish raise is primarily about building a strong, long-term shareholder base and creating a sustainable free float on Spotlight. The proceeds will be used to accelerate solar development, support future acquisitions, and further strengthen our working capital.
From a strategic standpoint, where do you envision Zenith Energy in 12 months, both operationally and financially?
Within the next 12 months, I expect to have strengthened our core business further, with a solar portfolio exceeding 100 MWp and meaningful progress achieved across all arbitration proceedings.
We aim to:
- Collect the ICC-1 award (USD 10 million+)
- Advance the ICSID arbitration process toward a favorable outcome
- On Monday, on September 15, we submitted the final documentation for the annulment of ICC-2, which we hope will allow us to relaunch the process of ICC-2.
Our focus is to keep demonstrating our ability to combine stable operations while unlocking substantial upside potential through our arbitration strategy.
- What are the top three reasons why Zenith Energy presents a compelling investment opportunity at this stage?
I’d summarize the top three reasons as described below:
- First, our largest arbitration claim of USD 503 million under ICSID is fully intact and represents major upside potential. Also, claim the ICC-1 award, totaling more than 10 million including interest rate.
- Second, we have a strong, cash-generating core business in gas and solar.
- Third, we offer a unique risk/reward profile, combining solid operations with extraordinary potential from our arbitrations.
Links
Zenith Energy IPO website: https://zenithenergy.ca/investors/listing-2025/
Subscribe for the IPO via Swedish Mobilt BankID: https://app.verified.eu/web/eminova-app/?company=zenith
Subscribe for the IPO via Avanza: https://www.avanza.se/erbjudanden/svara.html/1757338900338
Analysis of the IPO and IPO page at Analyst Group: https://analystgroup.se/emission/ipo-zenith-energy/
Aktiekurs
N/A
Värderingsintervall
2025-08-29
Bear
1.1 NOKBase
3.2 NOKBull
5.7 NOKUtveckling
Huvudägare
Analyst Group Comment on Zenith’s Acquisition of Solar Energy Project
2025-09-17
Zenith Energy Ltd. (“Zenith” or the “Company”) announced on Tuesday, September 16th 2025, that the Company has acquired a solar energy development project located in the Puglia region of Italy through its wholly owned Italian subsidiary created to manage its solar energy portfolio, WESOLAR S.R.L. (“WESOLAR”).
The newly acquired asset, currently in development stage, will have a total installed capacity of approximately 6 MWp. The EUR 750,000 consideration includes the purchase of the land and is conditional on obtaining all required permits for the project to be classified as ”Ready-to-Build.” With this latest transaction, Zenith’s total Italian solar portfolio now reaches 64.5 MWp, consisting of operational, ready-to-build, and development-stage assets.
Analyst Group’s View on the Puglia Acquisition
The acquired solar energy development asset, located in Puglia, will have a total installed capacity of approximately 6 MWp once operational, bringing the total portfolio capacity to 64.5 MWp. Analyst Group views the Puglia Acquisition as a strategic and value-accretive addition to Zenith’s fast-growing solar portfolio. The new 6 MWp development project strengthens Zenith’s regional cluster strategy, with Puglia now joining Piedmont and Lazio as one of three key focus areas for solar development. Importantly, the acquisition in Puglia highlights the Company’s continued progress in executing its communicated strategy of building a diversified, cash-generative renewable energy portfolio. The Company maintains a high pace of acquisitions during year 2025 and now holds a significantly expanded and diversified portfolio of solar assets spanning operational, ready-to-build, and development-stage projects, expanding the total solar portfolio to 64.5 MWp, which significantly strengthens the core business operations and further supports our expectation that the total portfolio exceeds 100 MWp before the end of year 2025.
Zenith’s solar strategy continues to be underpinned by the favorable structural conditions in the Italian energy market, including elevated electricity prices, strong policy support, and high solar irradiation, particularly in southern regions like Puglia, where the solar irradiation (GHI) is estimated to average between 1 800 and 2 000 kWh/m²/year, with a capacity factor between 17–20%, which represents the most favorable conditions for solar production. Based on our assumptions, Zenith’s total solar energy projects, once operational, are expected to generate revenues of approximately EUR 10.5M per year.
Zenith is currently in the process of listing on Spotlight Stock Market and offering Swedish Depository Receipts (SDRs) to both institutional and retail investors. The offering includes up to 55,555,556 SDRs, representing new shares equivalent to approximately SEK 25 million before issue costs.
Zenith has a long history of well-timed acquisitions at attractive valuations, as demonstrated by the acquisition of oil assets in Tunisia during the COVID-19 period. Core operations remain resilient, supported by profitable gas-to-electricity and solar production in Italy, where Zenith has been active since the year 2010. In 2025, the Company executed its largest solar acquisition to date and currently holds a diversified portfolio of 64.5 MWp, expected to exceed 100 MWp before year-end. Beyond core operations, Zenith has an established legal track record. The ICC-1 arbitration concluded successfully in December 2024 with a USD 9.7M award. While ICC-2 resulted in a full dismissal of USD 130M in claims, Zenith has now submitted an annulment application, citing serious procedural irregularities and newly discovered connections between tribunal members and the Tunisian state.
The broader and most strategically significant legal process remains the ICSID arbitration, where the Company is pursuing USD 503M under the UK–Tunisia Bilateral Investment Treaty. Final submissions are scheduled for September 2025, with hearings in Q2 2026. Analyst Group estimates a 68% probability of a favorable outcome based on historical data and legal precedent.
With a stable operational base in Italy and two active legal processes that could unlock substantial upside, Zenith presents a risk–reward profile where litigation outcomes may serve as significant value catalysts.